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June 09, 2009

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Ted Hurlbut

If you follow the S&P Retail Index, on days when the Index is up, Walmart is down, and on days when the Index is down, Walmart is up. Clearly, investors see Walmart as a counter-cyclical play.
They're probably right. As the economy improves Walmart will have a tough time holding onto many of their new customers. Those customers have known all along what Walmart is all about, and weren't responsive when things were better. They are shopping in Walmart today because they think it's prudent, not because it's their first choice.

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