Few industries have been hit harder by the economic crisis than Casual Dining. My alma mater, Darden Restaurants (DRI) is trading below $17, from $40 a year ago. Brinker (EAT) has gone from $25 a year ago to $6.70 today. Similarly, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is down about 75% vs. year-ago. While perhaps the market is overreacting, the dramatic trends should not be surprising. Some recent research shows that 71% of Americans are reducing their dining expenses. The market has concluded that the casual dining heyday is over: Traffic is declining quickly and won't bounce back for a long while.
Good restaurateurs understand that the answer cannot be higher prices and lower portions. That's a death spiral waiting to happen.
If I was running a casual dining chain, I'd build my strategy on the premise that people are eating out less, so they want a really special experience when they visit a restaurant. Consider these:
1. Shift the mix to premium quality and higher-priced items that generate more penny-profit, even if it means discounting them or reducing prices.
2. If you don't take reservations, now would be a good time to start. I bet long lines aren't your problem these days, even on Saturday nights.
3. Take service to a brave new level. Get your service manager on the floor during all business hours, greeting every customer at least once, comping a dessert, leaving business cards, learning names, getting emails, etc. Make each of these guest feel very special.
4. Advertise like each visit will be an extraordinary experience, even if you're not Ruth's Chris. (For some reason, I'm reminded of the Austin Powers provocative but unpretentious trailer back in 2000: "If you're going to see one movie this summer, see Star Wars. But if you're going to see two, see Austin Powers.")
5. Mine your database. Invite old customers back for something special. Better yet, call them. (Yeah, I know that sounds crazy, but you can bet the story will be told.
6. Stick to the basics. Unless you've got a killer product idea, you're better off promoting what you're famous for and good at. It's not worth advertising marginal product news, as you'll be disappointed in the returns.
7. Try to make the place look full. Close off the view of empty rooms and sections. If need be, close part of the restaurant for remodeling. Attract large groups (meetings/businesses/gatherings/etc.) on weeknights with generous offers, even if it's at breakeven economics.
8. And of course, need I say, QSC? Don't cut labor if it leads to slow service, dirty bathrooms and littered sidewalks.
9. Corporately, it's time to close your lowest-performing stores that are showing losses, or worse yet, burning cash. In the same quarter, add the severance packages from the home office people you choose to let go. Wall Street will give you some credit for these actions, and it's doubtful the stock will get hit much worse from a single drunken sailor story about your awful quarter.
10. And then hang on. If you've been doing this awhile, you know the good times will return, eventually.