I just read my copy of The Futurist's "Outlook 2009: Recent Forecasts from World Future Society for 2009 and Beyond." These are interesting forecasts ("predictions" sounds so tawdry). And while many will never hit the mark, they are all based on emerging trends and extrapolations. Some are seemingly obvious: Retirees will return to the workforce. Some frightening: "Age wars" will be generated by young people protesting their increased tax burden due to care for the elderly, which will force the government to pare back. And others potentially cataclysmic: Bio-violence will increasingly become a threat.
I found the long-term trends most fascinating, especially those that have happened right before my eyes. For instance, 83% of the world will have electricity by 2030. That's up from 73% in 2000, but only 40% in 1970. Also by 2030 60% of the world's population will live in urban settings, creating a long list of threats and problems.
The technology forecasts are always surprisingly near, I think because technology's rate of advancement continues to accelerate, making our intuitive straight-line expectations look pedestrian by comparison. Televisions will go 3D. And one day we'll be able to beam up objects, Star Trek style, by sending quantum information about particles so it can be recreated in a new location.
But as we've learned, technology advancements are a two-edged sword. For instance, medicine and biotech are moving at warp speed. Biomedical and genetic enhancements will be to the 21st century what the space race was to the 20th. I'm troubled that this might generate class warfare, as the wealthy will be able to pay for life-extending treatment that will be inaccessible to most of the population. Wars have been fought for less.
And finally, the one that struck me most, because I have been thinking the same thing for some time, and because the reality is just around the corner:
the late 2010s, ubiquitous unseen nanodevices will provide
seamless communication and surveillance among
all people everywhere. Humans will have nanoimplants,
facilitating interaction in an omnipresent network.
Everyone will have a unique Internet Protocol
(IP) address. Since nano storage capacity is almost limitless,
all conversation and activity will be recorded and
recoverable. —Gene Stephens, “Cybercrime in the Year
2025,” July-Aug 2008, p. 34
That changes everything. In many ways for the worse (what, no privacy?), and in others for the better (sunlight is the best disinfectant). In fact, I read recently that early research is demonstrating the capability to create images of your thoughts, suggesting that one day we will be able to add your ideas and dreams to the permanent database of all of your activity. Oh brave new world.
